Somalia After the Ethiopian Occupation
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by Abukar Arman
"Ethiopia has become Africa 's hegemonic brute."
In light of the development of several critical issues that include U.S. economic volatility and the new political direction it's likely to turn towards, it's not farfetched to predict that Washington-supported Ethiopian occupation of Somalia will soon come to an end. However, what ensues might not provide comfort to some who erroneously bought into the mindset that politics and Islam cannot and should not mix. But, unfortunately, their reaction would be the element that would tip the scale.
Evidently, Ethiopia is unable to feed her own people and thus could not feasibly sustain this occupation without Washington 's financial, political and technical support. In fiscal year 2007, the U.S. awarded the Ethiopian regime approximately $300 million dollars in a non-humanitarian aid, and it was supposed to award double that amount in fiscal year 2008 in order to "fight against Islamists in neighboring Somalia." Be that as it may, unless Ethiopia takes drastic measures (and soon) it can become the next epicenter of violence in the Horn of Africa.
The cruel occupation and the violent insurgency that it inspired have paved the way for the creation of the worst humanitarian crisis in the world. According to the UN estimate, 3.5 million Somalis are now on the verge of starvation, and about 1.5 million are IDPs (internally displaced persons). This, coupled with the widely documented brutal oppression against ethnically Somali people of Ogadenia, has profoundly contributed to the rapid erosion of Ethiopia 's international image. Ethiopia has become Africa 's hegemonic brute with a long record of gross human rights abuses and war crimes violations.
"Ethiopia is unable to feed her own people and thus could not feasibly sustain this occupation without Washington's financial, political and technical support."
Last year, ten U.S. Senators sent a bi-partisan letter to the Secretary of State expressing their grave concern over Ethiopia 's mounting human rights violations. Likewise, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill that became known as the Ethiopia Democracy and Accountability Act to restrict U.S. military aid unless Addis Ababa improved its human rights record.
Compounding the pressure, the insurgency becomes much fiercer and more popular every day, while public trust for the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) has eroded beyond repair. There is no escaping the writing on the wall: the lethal debacle that led to the worst misery in Somali history is coming to an end.
Now, the question is: Would an end to occupation establish peace and order in Somalia? Or, would that set the stage for Somalia to become, as some have been saying, a breeding ground or a safe haven for fugitive terrorists? Would that ensure security for Somalia's neighbors and respect for their territorial integrities?
Of course, it would be naïve to think that the Somali political problem, an intertwined set of complex issues, could be solved the day after the Ethiopian troops vacate Somalia . It will take a process, a painful one at that; but certainly nothing like the current nightmare.
Naturally, the insurgents will declare victory. But, they are not monolithic; neither in ideology nor in identity. They are a mixture of what's left of the ICU (Islamic Courts Union) and its radical wing Al-Shabaab, secularist nationalists, victims of the occupation, and clan loyalists. However, it's highly plausible for an inter-factional power struggle to ignite. One that is reminiscent of the May 2006 when ICU was fighting for its survival against a CIA-backed gang of the most abhorred warlords in Mogadishu who called themselves the Alliance for Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism.
"The Islamists have an unmatched record of public service."
In due course, there will be peaceful surrenders, amnesty, and disarmaments. How soon will this come to pass, and, whether or not the triumphant entity will be willing to share power, and, how susceptible would they be to radicalization depends mainly on how Washington reacts. And the last thing that Washington wants to do is to repeat the same ill-advised reaction that led to the current catastrophe in the first place.
For almost a decade, the mention of the word "Islamist" has blurred the West's sense of perspective. Everything was seen through the biased prism of "global war on terrorism," hence a blanket rejection was thrown over any form of "political Islam" - a loaded phrase that, to many Western ears, connotes something sinister and evil.
However, even in this landscape of predisposed negative attitudes toward anything that mixes Islam with politics, the Islamists have an unmatched record of public service. They operated schools, hospitals, and for six months before the occupation removed every checkpoint in Mogadishu and brought a semblance of peace.
Of course, the Islamists have made many reckless mistakes. Certain hardliners within the courts have haphazardly restricted certain liberties such as the right to watch movies and the right of women to opt out of wearing hijab.
But Islamists still ride high when it comes to sincerity of action. However, the masses, with their vigilant skepticism, will ultimately prevail. People look forward to a new, consensus-building leadership that puts law and order first. Leadership that would bring an end to the kidnapping, rape, human-trafficking, and piracy. Leadership that would subscribes to enlightened nationalism devoid of irredentist aspiration. People will embrace pluralistic, non-puritanical Islamic governance.
Lastly, people are yearning for a wise and a charismatic leader who would articulate a new vision and inspire the masses to dream a new Somalia.
Abukar Arman is a writer who lives in Ohio . His work has appeared on the pages of International Herald Tribune, Al-Jazeera Magazine, Arab News, and Foreign Policy In Focus.
"Ethiopia has become Africa 's hegemonic brute."
In light of the development of several critical issues that include U.S. economic volatility and the new political direction it's likely to turn towards, it's not farfetched to predict that Washington-supported Ethiopian occupation of Somalia will soon come to an end. However, what ensues might not provide comfort to some who erroneously bought into the mindset that politics and Islam cannot and should not mix. But, unfortunately, their reaction would be the element that would tip the scale.
Evidently, Ethiopia is unable to feed her own people and thus could not feasibly sustain this occupation without Washington 's financial, political and technical support. In fiscal year 2007, the U.S. awarded the Ethiopian regime approximately $300 million dollars in a non-humanitarian aid, and it was supposed to award double that amount in fiscal year 2008 in order to "fight against Islamists in neighboring Somalia." Be that as it may, unless Ethiopia takes drastic measures (and soon) it can become the next epicenter of violence in the Horn of Africa.
The cruel occupation and the violent insurgency that it inspired have paved the way for the creation of the worst humanitarian crisis in the world. According to the UN estimate, 3.5 million Somalis are now on the verge of starvation, and about 1.5 million are IDPs (internally displaced persons). This, coupled with the widely documented brutal oppression against ethnically Somali people of Ogadenia, has profoundly contributed to the rapid erosion of Ethiopia 's international image. Ethiopia has become Africa 's hegemonic brute with a long record of gross human rights abuses and war crimes violations.
"Ethiopia is unable to feed her own people and thus could not feasibly sustain this occupation without Washington's financial, political and technical support."
Last year, ten U.S. Senators sent a bi-partisan letter to the Secretary of State expressing their grave concern over Ethiopia 's mounting human rights violations. Likewise, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill that became known as the Ethiopia Democracy and Accountability Act to restrict U.S. military aid unless Addis Ababa improved its human rights record.
Compounding the pressure, the insurgency becomes much fiercer and more popular every day, while public trust for the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) has eroded beyond repair. There is no escaping the writing on the wall: the lethal debacle that led to the worst misery in Somali history is coming to an end.
Now, the question is: Would an end to occupation establish peace and order in Somalia? Or, would that set the stage for Somalia to become, as some have been saying, a breeding ground or a safe haven for fugitive terrorists? Would that ensure security for Somalia's neighbors and respect for their territorial integrities?
Of course, it would be naïve to think that the Somali political problem, an intertwined set of complex issues, could be solved the day after the Ethiopian troops vacate Somalia . It will take a process, a painful one at that; but certainly nothing like the current nightmare.
Naturally, the insurgents will declare victory. But, they are not monolithic; neither in ideology nor in identity. They are a mixture of what's left of the ICU (Islamic Courts Union) and its radical wing Al-Shabaab, secularist nationalists, victims of the occupation, and clan loyalists. However, it's highly plausible for an inter-factional power struggle to ignite. One that is reminiscent of the May 2006 when ICU was fighting for its survival against a CIA-backed gang of the most abhorred warlords in Mogadishu who called themselves the Alliance for Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism.
"The Islamists have an unmatched record of public service."
In due course, there will be peaceful surrenders, amnesty, and disarmaments. How soon will this come to pass, and, whether or not the triumphant entity will be willing to share power, and, how susceptible would they be to radicalization depends mainly on how Washington reacts. And the last thing that Washington wants to do is to repeat the same ill-advised reaction that led to the current catastrophe in the first place.
For almost a decade, the mention of the word "Islamist" has blurred the West's sense of perspective. Everything was seen through the biased prism of "global war on terrorism," hence a blanket rejection was thrown over any form of "political Islam" - a loaded phrase that, to many Western ears, connotes something sinister and evil.
However, even in this landscape of predisposed negative attitudes toward anything that mixes Islam with politics, the Islamists have an unmatched record of public service. They operated schools, hospitals, and for six months before the occupation removed every checkpoint in Mogadishu and brought a semblance of peace.
Of course, the Islamists have made many reckless mistakes. Certain hardliners within the courts have haphazardly restricted certain liberties such as the right to watch movies and the right of women to opt out of wearing hijab.
But Islamists still ride high when it comes to sincerity of action. However, the masses, with their vigilant skepticism, will ultimately prevail. People look forward to a new, consensus-building leadership that puts law and order first. Leadership that would bring an end to the kidnapping, rape, human-trafficking, and piracy. Leadership that would subscribes to enlightened nationalism devoid of irredentist aspiration. People will embrace pluralistic, non-puritanical Islamic governance.
Lastly, people are yearning for a wise and a charismatic leader who would articulate a new vision and inspire the masses to dream a new Somalia.
Abukar Arman is a writer who lives in Ohio . His work has appeared on the pages of International Herald Tribune, Al-Jazeera Magazine, Arab News, and Foreign Policy In Focus.
He can be contacted at abukar_arman@yahoo.com
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